Modi-Trump trade clash - Farmers' shield vs tariff wall, what will be the future of India-US relations?
New Delhi - India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a strong message in his recent Independence Day speech from the Red Fort, prioritizing the safety of farmers, fishermen and livestock farmers. The speech proved to be a strategic move not only for domestic politics but also a clear indication for possible negotiations with US President Donald Trump at the international level. Just before the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, Modi's statement expressed commitment to protect India's agriculture sector from any external pressure, which is exactly opposite to the demands of the Trump administration. The US has been constantly pushing for opening up India's agricultural and dairy markets, but Modi made it clear that there will be no compromise on the interests of farmers.
The issue has emerged at a time when global trade tensions are at a peak. Trump, who is preparing for the 2026 US midterm elections, is looking for big trade deals to strengthen his party. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships are at stake in these elections. History shows that the ruling party often suffers losses in midterm elections, and Republicans are already lagging behind the Democrats. In such a situation, it is politically important for Trump to win agricultural trade with India, especially in those US states where agriculture and dairy industry is prominent.
PM Modi's farmer-centric speech a political masterstroke
Speaking from the Red Fort on Independence Day, Prime Minister Modi described India's farmers as the "backbone of the country" and promised to build a "protective wall" for them. He said that any policy that harms farmers will not be tolerated. This statement was a direct response to the demands of the US, which is appealing to India to reduce high duties on agricultural products and increase market access. In his speech, Modi enumerated India's agricultural achievements: ranked first in the world in milk, pulses and jute production, while second in rice, wheat, cotton, fruits and vegetables. He said that India's agricultural exports are more than Rs 4 lakh crore, which strengthens the country's economy.
Along with this, Modi announced the "Pradhan Mantri Dhanya Dhanya Krishi Yojana", which aims to bring the country's 100 most backward agricultural districts into the mainstream of development. Under the scheme, self-sufficiency in fertilizers and other inputs will be emphasized, so that food security is not affected by global shocks. This move is an effort not only to increase the income of farmers, but also to maintain Modi's popularity in rural India. India's agriculture sector is worth about $ 400 billion, while the dairy sector is worth $ 150 billion. Both these sectors provide employment to crores of people and are the backbone of the rural economy. This stance of Modi shows that he does not want to lose the farmers' vote bank at any cost, which has been the main pillar of his political success.
Trump's strategy - finding markets for American farmers
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump is engaged in reorganizing global trade under his "America First" policy. They are pressuring India to open its markets for US agricultural and dairy products. The Trump administration believes that India's high tariffs and strict hygiene norms are a hindrance to US exporters. If India removes these barriers, the US can get a huge market of 1.4 billion Indian consumers, which will create thousands of jobs. Particularly midwestern US states like Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan, where dairy and grain production is dominant, are politically important for Trump. These states supported Trump in the 2024 elections and now they are expecting economic benefits in return.
Trump's allies claim that a trade deal with India will strengthen the US economy. Currently India-US bilateral trade is more than $120 billion, but punitive duties in the agricultural sector have reached 50 percent. For Trump, this issue could prove to be a major victory ahead of the midterm elections, strengthening his party in rural America. However, Modi's stand is clear: the agricultural sector will be a "red line" in any trade talks.
Water rights and Indus Treaty - playing the nationalist card
Modi's speech also emphasised water rights. He called the Indus Water Treaty "unjust" and promised to take back India's share of water. Though the statement was primarily for a domestic audience, it positioned agriculture as a sovereignty issue. Water scarcity is a major challenge for India, and the water from the Indus river is a lifeline for farmers. Modi's stance shows that he is strengthening his position by arousing nationalist sentiments in the face of trade pressures.
The issue is complicated by its connection to Pakistan, but it can be indirectly linked to trade negotiations with the US. The Trump administration expects cooperation from India, but Modi's priority is clearly domestic interests. This confrontation may become more evident in the meeting to be held at the United Nations General Assembly, where the two leaders will be face to face.
Global perspective: Political conflict between two democracies
This dispute is not only related to trade policy, but also to the political fate of two big democracies. For Modi, protecting farmers is a question of maintaining his credibility in rural India, while for Trump it is an opportunity to please American farmers. If an agreement is not reached, pressure may increase on both sides. India's emphasis on self-reliance, such as self-reliance in fertilizer production, will ensure independence from the global supply chain. At the same time, America's tariff walls can fuel a trade war with other countries.
Experts believe that this conflict can last long. India's economy is growing rapidly, and the agricultural sector plays an important role in it. If Trump's strategy succeeds, American exports will increase, but for India it can harm domestic industries. Relations between the two countries are strong, but agreement on sensitive issues like agriculture is not easy. Modi's speech is a sign that India will move forward on its own terms
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